MLB Awards Predictions

Scott Long

9/25/20

Baseball’s stars have been shining bright this year, but more than anything some unexpected newcomers have entered the award races this year. With the season shortened to 60 games as a result of the pandemic final stat lines look a lot different than the would in a normal year, with counting stats much lower, but batting averages and on base percentages inflated more than usual due to the smaller number of at bats.

On the Rookie of the Year front several players have made a name for themselves in their first season in the majors. In the National League, there is a tight race between Jake Cronenworth, Sixto Sanchez and Alec Bohm, while the American League is a two-man race between Kyle Lewis and Luis Robert. Cronenworth is a utility player for the San Diego Padres, who is hitting .304 with four home runs and 20 RBI, and has been a huge part of the Padres clinching a wild card spot in the National League. Sanchez, a starting pitcher for the Miami Marlins, has shown flashes of stardom during his rookie season with a 3-2 record, 3.46 ERA and 33 strikeouts, but the fact that he’s only thrown 39 innings makes it unlikely he wins the award. Meanwhile, Alec Bohm of the Philadelphia Phillies has shaken off the fact that he didn’t start the year on the major league roster by swinging the bat to a tune of a .333 batting average with four home runs and 22 RBI, making him the favorite to win the award. In the American League on the other hand, Lewis of the Seattle Mariners, got off to a scalding hot start, but has since cooled down. Yet, he still has a 11 home runs and 28 RBI to his name making him the A.L. favorite to win the award. Chicago White Sox outfielder, Luis Robert spent much of the season as the favorite to win the award, due to his athleticism, defensive ability and power, however a rough end to the season has led his batting average to drop all the way to .220. Despite the low batting average, Robert played so well through the early portion of the season that he still garners consideration.

Of all the awards races, none is closer than the Cy Young race in the National League, where Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer are jockeying for the top spot. Max Fried and Dinelson Lamet also garner attention after very strong seasons, but the stiff competition makes it unlikely they receive any first-place votes. Entering the season, deGrom was the overwhelming favorite after winning the award each of the past two seasons, unfortunately an injury in one of his starts caused his innings to drop a bit and inflate his ERA. However, he didn’t disappoint this season, as his numbers are still top notch and would likely garner a win in most other seasons, as he’s 4-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 63 innings. Darvish has been strong for the Chicago Cubs as well after a down season last year, pitching to a 7-3 record with 88 strikeouts and a 2.22 ERA in 69 innings. However, despite their strong years, Trevor Bauer’s the deserving winner in his first year with the Cincinnati Reds. Bauer has a 5-4 record with a 1.73 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 73 innings, helping the Reds stay in the playoff picture. While the N.L. has a close race, the A.L. winner is pretty clearly Shane Bieber, of the Cleveland Indians. Bieber has been so good this year that he has an outside chance at the MVP as well, but that’s much less likely. He’s 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 77.1 innings this season and is one of the biggest reasons that the Indians have clinched a wild card spot.

As for the most anticipated race, the MVP award is a pretty close race in the National League once again, with Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts representing the main competitors. Freeman has led the Atlanta Braves to a division title by hitting .338 with 12 home runs, 51 RBI, and a whopping .456 on base percentage. Machado and Tatis Jr. are both also having phenomenal seasons, however since they are both on the same team, there votes will probably be split between the two of them, as some will view one as the Padres best player and some will give the other that honor. Betts on the other hand has been the unquestioned best player on his team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in his first year with the team, batting .293 with 16 home runs and 39 RBI at the top of a potent lineup. While all four have had great seasons, Freeman should be viewed as the front runner due to his edge in batting average, on base percentage and runs batted in. Meanwhile in the A.L., the race is between Mike Trout, Jose Abreu and the aforementioned Shane Bieber. Another year, another Mike Trout top three MVP finish, as the Angels outfielder has finished in the top three in his first eight seasons, and is now looking to make that nine straight. Trout’s stats have been so consistent and strong that due to the shortened season his “pedestrian” .282 batting average looks weak by his standards, and he has coupled that with 16 home runs and 43 RBI, despite missing a few games while on paternity leave. Despite the strong seasons from Trout and Bieber though, White Sox first Baseman Jose Abreu seems to be a sure bet for this year’s A.L. MVP due to his across the board strong stats, and leadership contributions to a young White Sox team who has clinched a playoff spot. Abreu leads the major league in hits with 74, games played with 57, and RBI with 77, while also hitting .325 with 19 home runs and a league leading .636 slugging percentage.

Despite the shortened season, baseball’s biggest stars have still come out to play this season, and hope to continue to play into October and November for some playoff baseball. With three days left in the season, there is a slight chance someone makes a leap or drop in the races, but barring anything unforeseen, these six players seem poised for hardware this year thanks to their elite performance.