Scott Long
10/25/20
Predicting how good young players in the minor leagues and in college are is never easy, it’s for that reason that teams have such low success rate when drafting players. Through the use of analytics and advanced statistics in baseball, you should be able to get a better understanding of what players’ skill sets project favorably towards the major league level, and which players’ skill sets don’t project as favorably to transition to the major league game. One player who projects favorably as a player who should succeed at the next level is Jeter Downs, a 22-year-old middle infielder who plays in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. However, another player, Ronny Mauricio, a 19-year-old shortstop prospect from the New York Mets organization doesn’t project as well when it comes to playing at the major league level. While both of these players are ranked in the top 100 prospects via mlb.com, that doesn’t mean they will translate to the next level. Additionally, just because statistics suggest that Downs will succeed at the next level, and Mauricio won’t doesn’t mean that that is definitely true, this is about projecting future performance, and these statistics are aimed at giving a better ability to project that ability, but are not always right.
Despite being a high ranked prospect, after being drafted 32nd overall by Cincinnati, out of Monsignor Edward Pace High School, Downs has bounced around several organizations. In the 2018 offseason, he was acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers along with Josiah Gray, in exchange for Yasiel Puig, Homer Bailey, Matt Kemp, and Kyle Farmer, as the Reds planned on making a playoff run, with major league ready talent. Unfortunately, only two years later, Downs was on the move again, involved in a blockbuster trade with Alex Verdugo and other prospects heading to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Mookie Betts and David Price. Despite being traded several times, Downs is still only 22 years old and is hoping to make his major league debut soon, after playing as high as the AA level. One of the main reasons that Downs projects so well as a pro player is his power, which at shortstop or second base will make him even more valuable, due to these two positions typically not having as much power. In the last 3 seasons, excluding this season, because of COVID-19 cancellations, Downs has 1,268 at bats across for different minor league levels. While there isn’t a huge sample size at each level, there is a lot more to look at for him than there is for many of the other listed prospects. The first stat that projects Downs as a successful player, is wRC+, or weighted runs created plus, which attempts to measure offensive value based on runs, while factoring in ballpark factors and other factors. The league average for wRC+ is 100, so any total over 100 makes you that much better than league average. Rookie ball is the only time he had a wRC+ below league average, and it sat just below at 93 that season, but since he was in his first season, and has since improved we will look more at the seasons since. He followed that up with a wRC+ of 118 in A ball, 134 in A+, and while the sample was small in AA, his wRC+ at that level was 207. It is unquestioned, that in the minor leagues he has been significantly better than league average at generating runs. Part of the reason he has been so good at generating runs is due to his consistently having an above average wOBA, when league average is .320. Throughout his minor league career, he has had a wOBA of: .357, .350, .379 and .484 as he has gone up to each new level. wOBA is like on base percentage, except it weights each type of getting on base more than the next, thus is more valuable to figuring out how good at generating runs a player is. Through his numbers so far, Downs has been good-very good in his wOBA, signifying even more that he can generate a lot of runs. Furthermore, not only can Downs generate runs, but he’s also got a very good eye at the plate, which shows he has plate discipline and the right approach for the major leagues. League average in walk percentage is 8%, yet as he has gone up each level he has had walk percentages of: 12.9%, 9.9%, 11.3% and 10.7%, perfectly demonstrating that he has a knack for not needing to get a hit to get on base. Going off of that strikeout percentage is also key, and while league average is 20%, his K% has been: 15.3, 19.7, 20.3 and 17.9, showing that he strikes out a little less than league average. Walks, home runs are the three true outcomes in baseball because they are the three things that are not controlled by the fielders, so since he walks a lot, and strikes out less than league average while also having power, it is clear that Downs has the tools and approach to succeed at the next level. Additionally, Downs has seen his line drive percentage increase each time he has reached a new level, as it has gone from: 11.9%, 17.9%, 22.1 % to all the way up to 26.3%. Couple the line drive percentage, with the fly ball percentage that has remained over 50% throughout his minor league career and his continually declining ground ball percentage and you will see that he is buying into the launch angle revolution that many pros have followed. With him hitting most of his batted balls in the air or on a line, this heightens the chance for home runs and extra base hits, and as he gets older he will likely continue to get stronger, allowing him to hit the ball even farther, leading to even more of each. As a middle infielder, many shortstops and second baseman typically aren’t power hitters, so this would add to his value as a player. Clearly, Hunter Downs has elite run creating skills, good plate discipline, the ability to walk, power and is hitting the ball most often in the air, which when combined projects him to be a very good player at the major league level.
Unfortunately for Mets shortstop prospect Ronny Mauricio, statistics aren’t as kind to him in projecting his potential as a big-league player. Mauricio is a 19-year old whom the Mets signed as an International Free Agent during the 2017-2018 international signing period. Mauricio is one of the players who someone like Billy Beane would not have interest in, as he is one of the prospects that scouts have fallen in love with due to his height, speed, glove and offensive potential. While he is a very fast player, with stolen bases quickly becoming a thing of the past, Mauricio will more so rely on his touted glove and potential on the offensive side of the ball. While potential is there, and he is still only 19 years old, results have yet to truly translate to the minor league levels, so as of now he doesn’t project to be a successful major league player. One of the main reasons he doesn’t project as well is because of his walk rate, which like mentioned earlier, league average is about 8%, yet his walk rate has only gone down each level/year that’s gone by, as he started at a walk rate of 8.6%, but that was in a small sample size of 8 games and followed that up with walk rates of 4.7% and 4.6% in his next two stat lines during more normal sample sizes. His strikeout rate has fluctuated, but the mean rate is about league average, so he’s fine in that regard, however, with a very below average walk rate it will be hard to succeed at the next level. Similarly, his wRC+ needs some work too, as it has been at 61, 101, and 93 throughout his minor league career. While the lowest number is likely an outlier, due to the small sample size of 8 games, the other two numbers suggest that his wRC+ projects to be slightly below average, which is not what is expected from someone who’s touted as one of the league’s very best prospects. His below average wRC+ suggests that he’s not great at generating runs, and thus he likely projects more as a bottom of the order bat, which isn’t uncommon as a middle infielder, but for someone as highly touted as he is, that’s not what is expected of their bat, and that is assuming the player is great on the defensive side that that’s acceptable, but that’s not what this evaluation is about. Additionally, his slugging percentage also doesn’t quite live up to the expectation of a highly touted prospect, with his slugging percentages finishing at: .333, .421, and .357. League average for slugging percentage is .435, so he’s clearly significantly below average in this category, meaning that most of his hits are singles because extra base hits and home runs result in higher slugging percentages. Combining this with his walk rate indicates that Mauricio does not walk much, and that most of his hits are singles, which doesn’t equate him to being a very productive hitter. This makes sense considering his batted ball percentage consists of numbers hovering around 50% ground balls, while his line drive percentage has hovered down around 18%, and his fly ball percentage sits down at 32%. Clearly, with most of his balls being hit on the ground it would make sense that most of his hits are singles, and not that this isn’t fixable, but projecting ahead, it would be assumed he’d be this type of hitter at the major league level. Finally, BABIP, or batting average on balls in play is another stat that makes Mauricio project poorly. Despite only having batting averages of .233, .279, and .268, Mauricio has had a BABIP of .304, .310, and .330, while league average is .300. Anything above .300 indicates a bit of luck, signaling that regression is likely coming, so even though two of these are only slightly over .300, and the other has a pretty significant gap, there is likely some expected regression with the hits that fall. That is not helpful to Mauricio because he already doesn’t have the highest batting average, and since he doesn’t walk much, or hit for much power, having a low batting average is not a good sign for him. Clearly, based off of these advanced statistics, Mauricio is one player in the top 100 prospects whose future doesn’t project as favorably as others.
Clearly, projecting the future of players is not an exact science. However, looking at certain stats, particularly walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball percentage, line drive percentage, fly ball percentage and advanced statistics such as: wRC+, BABIP, wOBA and slugging percentage, gives a better idea of who is more likely to succeed and falter at the next level. Jeter Downs is one of many players on the top 100 prospect list who projects as a successful player at the major league level, while Ronny Mauricio projects as one of the many who won’t live up to the expectations. This is not to say this is an exact science, as something could change with Mauricio’s swing that clicks, or something could change with Downs, but based off of statistical analysis of how they have played in the past, this is why they are projected this way.